Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
